U.S. Dollar. I realized the GNP numbers were faulty, corrected them for my client (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later) and the model worked again, at least for a while, until GNP methodological changes eventually made the underlying data worthless. -- Severe Systemic structural damage and distortions from the Pandemic-driven Shutdown continues to forestall meaningful Economic Rebound into 2023 and beyond, despite a reopened economy, in context of flummoxed Fiscal and Monetary Policies, and ever-evolving COVID-19 and related circumstances, and the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Consumer Inflation: Official vs ShadowStats - BMG -- Extended Fed coverage will follows in the later SYSTEMIC RISK SECTION -- FEDERAL RESERVE, with an updated story following the pending May 3rd FOMC coverage, as well as a comprehensive review of Federal Reserve Monetary Policies and Federal Government Fiscal Policies in pending Commentary No. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. The NBER called an end to the 2020 Recession on July 19th, again, just the first leg of the Depression. "John" Williams was born in 1949. For example, they . Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades. Yet, as discussed here frequently, the problem inflation largely is being driven by the FOMCs still explosive Money Supply and System Liquidity growth, not by an overheating economy. (2) April 27th (Bureau of Economic Analysis), also see Note 17. Despite numerous, separate indications of the economy stalling or turning down anew (see the earlier GDP, Consumer Sentiment, New Orders for Durable Goods, Industrial Production, and Construction Spending), such broadly is ignored at present. March 2023 Money Supply numbers and historic tables have been posted and graphed to the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the Menu Bar above), with more extensive analysis, graphs and coverage following in the DAILY UPDATE e-mails and in pending Commentary No. Consumer Inflation: Official vs ShadowStats | Chart of the Week. COVID-19 vaccines and improved treatment have helped to stabilize a still-disrupted level of economic activity, again well shy of a fundamental, full recovery, yet Pandemic issues, including new variants and vaccination controversies, continue. Where January 2021 Year-to-Year Manufacturing Contracted by 1.0% (-1.0%), It Also Contracted by 1.8% (-1.8%) from January 2019, Two Years Ago That said, the initial estimate of the theoretical GDP-equivalent 4q2022 Gross Domestic Income (GDI) showed an annualized quarterly contraction of 1.14% (-1.14%), versus an annualized gain of 3.76% in 3q2022, with the more traditional Gross National Product (GNP) gaining at an initial annualized 2.38% in 4q2022 GDP, versus 2.44% in 3q2022. ET). FOMC Has Trouble Forecasting Inflation One Quarter Ahead, Let Alone Two Years Ahead Signals of renewed, faltering activity increasingly have taken on the mantle of a new Recession. Near Record Growth of Currency in Circulation Foreshadows Inflation Risk In contrast, the usually less meaningfully sampled Housing Starts, tend to be more volatile in revision. Despite a small monthly narrowing in the headline March 2023 Unemployment Rate, details remained consistent with an unfolding recession. That said, in Business Cycle definitions, an economic downturn traditionally has been known as a Depression, which has two components the Recession and the Recovery. After the economic terror of the Great Depression, economic downturns took on the less-frightening Recession nomenclature. Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.. Redefined November Money Supply M1 Just Jumped from 31.7% to 92.7% of Total M2; November 2020 Year-to-Year Growth in the Traditional Money Supply M1 Soared to a Record 53.2%, the Redefined New Series Reflects a Record 348.4% Jump The CPI on the Alternate Data Series tab here reflects the CPI as if it were calculated using the methodologies in place in 1980. Consider that where latest headline 4q2022 GDP was up by an increasingly tepid 0.88%, and by 5.04% against its Pre-Pandemic level, the ShadowStats Alternate was down by 1.16% (-1.16%) year-to year, and down by 1.22% (-1.33%) against its Pre-Pandemic level. October Industrial Production Continued in L-Shaped Recovery, With Annual Change Flattening Out in Negative Territory -- Extended Fed coverage will follows in the later SYSTEMIC RISK SECTION -- FEDERAL RESERVE, with an updated story following the pending May 3rd FOMC coverage, as well as a comprehensive review of Federal Reserve Monetary Policies and Federal Government Fiscal Policies in pending Commentary No. Shadow Government Statistics or Shadowstats is a blog run by John Williams in which he re-analyzes government economic /unemployment published statistics in order to restate them. Separately, the inflation issue is complicated by independently rising gasoline prices, not by any overheating economy! 1461. 1459, again, with updated and expanded details pending in the Subscriber-only e-mails and No. Headline 1q2023 GDP annualized Real GDP growth of 1.06% slowed from an unrevised 2.57% in 4q2022, while annualized quarterly inflation picked from 3.92% to 4.01%. Further definition is provided in our CPI Glossary. Headline March 2023 Producer Price Index (PPI) annual inflation dropped sharply from 4.9% in February 2023 to 2.8% in March 2023, due to the relative easing against the extreme oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago Russian invasion of Ukraine. Business-Cycle Conditions Are Collapsing Rapidly, Amidst an Extreme Acceleration in Inflation Please note with the ALTERNATE DATA Tab, that the Money Supply annual growth rates after February 2021 instead are against the February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Level not year-to-year (although both measures are plotted in the subscriber-only graphs). Use the drop-down menu below to find highlights and links to Commentaries from the present and past months. Chances Are Reduced for Moderating Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies The growth of the shadow economy can set off a destructive cycle. In contrast, the usually less meaningfully sampled Housing Starts, tend to be more volatile in revision. Explored in the pending Commentary, the U.S. economy is and has been much weaker than advertised, not overheating, and the soaring inflation, which is much worse than headlined, again, primarily is being driven by the Feds excessive Money and Liquidity creation, not by an overheating economy, in a policy conundrum previously noted here by ShadowStats. In Australia, unions are already demanding 3 per cent annual pay rises in wage negotiations, while Labor's shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers used Tuesday's data to highlight that inflation was. What are Shadow's specs? (8) April 18th, (Census Bureau). Those numbers are adjusted for inflation, using the Construction Producer Price Index. ShadowStats is Williams' attempt to provide an alternative to the official consumer price index (CPI), which he views as a flawed measure of what members of the general public have in mind when. 1460b and will be detailed in pending No. When the Pandemic hit the U.S. economy and financial system hard in March and April 2020, the Federal Reserve responded with massive expansion of the Money Supply (eventually the equivalent of 23-years-worth of regular Basic M1 stimulus -- Systemic Liquidity). Aside from some short-term reporting gimmicks, Payroll Employment probably still is the highest-quality economic statistic published by the U.S. Government, at present, given current data and the reporting-compromised conditions of a still-evolving Pandemic/ post-Pandemic environment. According to a new study published by the Institute for Applied Economic Research at the University of Tbingen in Germany (IAW), the Greek shadow economy is estimated to average 21.5 percent of . Current liquidity and political risks and issues are intensified by potential Hyperinflation, long viewed by ShadowStats as the ultimate fate of the U.S. Dollar. -- The University of Michigans full-month release of the April 2023 Consumer Sentiment reading held little changed at 63.5, against its initial estimate of 63.5, up from 62.0 in March 2023, holding shy by 37.1% (-37.1%)[previously by 38.6% (-38.6%) in March] of ever recovering its February 2020 pre-Pandemic peak level of 101.0. Background definitions and related detailed discussion, historical data and graphs for each of the Money Supply Series were covered in Benchmark Commentary No. Against its Pre-Pandemic Trough (PPT), ShadowStats March 2023 Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits [83% of the old pre-May 2020 M1]) moved higher to 120.5%, from a revised 119.8% (previously 119.3%) in February, still shy of its historic peak of 123.2% in August 2022. Monthly Annual and Post-Pandemic Payroll Declines Have Stabilized Around Minus Six-to-Seven Percent for the Last Eight Month, Weakest Showing Since 1946 March 2023 Housing Starts dropped year-to-year by a meaningful 17.2% (-17.2%) +/- 9.1%, with a 90% confidence interval, versus a revised 19.4% (-19.4%) [previously 18.4% (-18.4%)] in February. Although I am known formally as Walter J. Williams, my friends call me John.For 30 years, I have been a private consulting economist and, out of necessity, had to become a specialist in government economic reporting. Please note: Our Data Download is currently only providing the 1980-Based numbers, but 1990-Based numbers will be introduced shortly. -- Despite recent GDP Benchmark Revisions and current gimmicked reporting, key Economic Series show not only that the Pandemic-driven Economic Collapse was worse than headlined, but also that the still-unfolding Recovery has been much weaker than indicated. -- The University of Michigans full-month release of the April 2023 Consumer Sentiment reading held little changed at 63.5, against its initial estimate of 63.5, up from 62.0 in March 2023, holding shy by 37.1% (-37.1%)[previously by 38.6% (-38.6%) in March] of ever recovering its February 2020 pre-Pandemic peak level of 101.0. Gasoline prices having been in an upswing since January 2023, gaining 11.7% since December 2022, as of the just-released April 2023 monthly average [EIA]. Increases have continued across-the-board into early April 2023. Money Supply and Monetary Base detail follows in the later FEDERAL RESERVE Section and its SYSTEMIC RISK -- MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY BASE coverage (just keep scrolling down), along with expanded material in conjunction with the updated Money Supply numbers and graph posted on the ALTERNATE DATA Tab of www.shadowstats.com (see the link above). (9) April 14th, (Federal Reserve Board). Watch part 2 on hyperinflation: https://youtu.be/jzwU_UOwVMIUsing the same data collection and calculation methodologies as the Bureau of Labor Statistics us. Part I --BOTTOM LINE Systemically Dangerous and Perilous FOMC Activity is Likely in the Week Ahead. Such Was the First Annual Gain in Freight Activity Since November 2018, When Excessive Fed Tightening Was Being Used to Constrain Consumer Liquidity and Domestic Economic Growth Is ShadowStats legit? : AskReddit In terms of quarter-to-quarter change, despite a sharp monthly decline in March 2023, those January and February auto sales pulled relative real 1q2023 activity up at an annualized quarterly pace of 3.10%, following respective consecutive annualized quarter-to-quarter declines of 3.29% (-3.29%) and 2.35% (-2.36%) in 4q2022 and 3q2022. For those looking to subscribe, please go to the SUBSCRIPTION LINK at the upper left-hand corner of this Web page). The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. GENERAL COVERAGE: Again, on the Inflation front, it is the bloated Money Supply and gasoline price disruptions that are driving or affecting higher inflation, at present, not an overheating economy. Any solid developments in the ever-deepening U.S. Government Fiscal Crisis will be covered here in the SYSTEMIC RISK Section. (3) April 26th (Census Bureau). This is because he states that these numbers have been manipulated over the past 25 years for nefarious political reasons. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. At the same time, the FOMC keeps hiking interest rates, in order to kill economic activity that is neither overheating nor driving the inflation, despite the publicly expressed claims of the FOMC and its Fed Chairman. The Shadow TUAS can carry payloads up to 27kg (60lb) including sensors and electronic warfare systems. Inflation is already in the double digits, according to ShadowStats While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation . Inflation. Here is how the March 2023 Money Supply numbers shaped up. Accordingly, ongoing massive Fiscal and Monetary Stimuli will be needed, and likely will expand into 2024/2025, irrespective of the FOMCs pronounced tightening. As demonstrated in recent decades, FOMC stimulus likely will remain in play, as targeted by the FOMC, primarily, in order to prevent a collapse in the Banking System, or to magnify liquidity in the Banking System, which owns and controls the Federal Reserve, not to stimulate the Broad Economy, per se. Noted frequently here and discussed subsequent to earlier FOMC Meetings (March 22nd was the last), little has changed: The Federal Reserves Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hiked the targeted Federal Funds Rate March 22nd by the expected 0.25%, to a 15-year high level of 5.00%, hoping still to induce an imminent Economic Recession, which otherwise already had been in play and deepening for some time, due to earlier rate hikes. For the most-liquid Basic M1 Money Supply measure in March 2023, dollar levels and growth levels moved higher against the Pre-Pandemic Trough, still suggestive of massive mounting, not easing inflation pressures. Yet, as discussed here frequently, the problem inflation largely is being driven by the FOMCs still explosive Money Supply and System Liquidity growth, not by an overheating economy. -- With fundamental U.S. Dollar debasement (inflation) intensifying, irrespective of short-lived games with reduced oil prices, and especially in the context of the Fed and related entities having to balance, bail out or backstop an increasingly troubled Financial System, holding physical Gold and Silver protects the purchasing power of ones assets, irrespective of any near-term Central Bank or other precious metals price machinations to the contrary. Go to https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/march-2023 for full detail. Including Long-Term Discouraged Workers, the broader, March 2023 ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate of 24.6% held at a seven-month high. 1461. -- In line with FOMC rate hikes, annual Payroll Growth has been slowing for the last fourteen months, from 5.3% in February 2022 to 2.7% in March 2023, suggestive of softening economic activity. Yet, with the new Fed Funds Rate at a 15-plus-year high (since July 2007), the earlier FOMC rate hikes already are pummeling the economy, but again, not relieving inflation. Alternate Inflation Charts - Shadowstats.com -- In line with FOMC rate hikes, annual Payroll Growth has been slowing for the last fourteen months, from 5.3% in February 2022 to 2.7% in March 2023, suggestive of softening economic activity. Year-to-Year Gain in Monthly November M1 Jumped to a Record 53.2% from the Prior Record of 42.3% in October, Surged to 65.6% in Week-Ended November 30th Where current inflationary pressures appear to be tied to excessive Monetary stimulus out of the Fed, not due to an overheating economy, still higher interest rates, now, would do little to contain inflation, while at the same time higher interest rates would continue to impair economic activity. Noted frequently here and discussed subsequent to earlier FOMC Meetings (March 22nd was the last), little has changed: The Federal Reserves Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hiked the targeted Federal Funds Rate March 22nd by the expected 0.25%, to a 15-year high level of 5.00%, hoping still to induce an imminent Economic Recession, which otherwise already had been in play and deepening for some time, due to earlier rate hikes. -- Headline March 2023 U.3 and U.6 Unemployment of 3.50% and 6.68% notched lower from respective three- and six-month highs of 3.57% and 6.80% in February, but held above January 2023 levels. I've yet to find someone who has been able to reproduce the claims made by Shadow Government Statistics about the extent to which government agencies are grossly misreporting the U.S. inflation rate. ET) and Press Conference (2:30 p.m. Annual-Change Gyrations Are Just Beginning for Economic, Inflation, Money Supply and Financial Return Numbers, as the Pandemic-Driven Collapse Passes It First Anniversary Consider -- Despite significant Recovery off the Pandemic-Driven Economic Trough of April 2020, the February 2023 Payroll Employment has recovered its February 2020 Pre-Pandemic/ Recession Peak, despite indications of a renewed slowdown. While the now-broadest aggregate Money Supply M2 declined year-to-year by 4.1% (-4.1%) in March 2023, the highly liquid and inflation driving Basic M1 was up by 4.8% year-to-year. Primers & Reports. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. Note also that the period of time in which the blue line departs from the CPI transformation is 2007-2009, a time in which inflation mania was at its peak. "John Williams Shadow Government Statistics" is an electronic newsletter service that exposes and analyzes flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting, as well as in certain private-sector numbers, and provides an assessment of underlying economic and financial conditions, net of financial-market and political hype. SHADOWSTATS SUBSCRIPTIONS Economic and financial issues raised here are reviewed more extensively, along with exclusive graphs, and expanded economic, financial market and monetary assessment in subscriber-only Commentaries [monthly going forward], and more frequently on a timely basis in the subscriber-only e-mails of daily changes in the DAILY UPDATE (as the news breaks, see the prior paragraph). Again, with the recovery from the Pandemic-driven collapse still flub-a-dubbing, continued extraordinary Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus likely will continue well into 2023, despite Financial-Market huffing and puffing to the contrary, and bi-furcated FOMC happy hype. L A T E S T .. N U M B E R S -- See the later SYSTEMIC RISK SECTION -- FEDERAL RESERVE for the current FOMC coverage and detail of February and early March 2023 Monetary Conditions. Unprecedented in 40-Plus Years of Weekly Monetary Reporting: Money Supply M1 Jumped by 14.1% in the Last Two Weeks, in a Post-Election / COVID-19 Flight to Cash, From M2 to M1 Consider that March 2023 Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits [Checking Accounts]) gained anew, month-to-month, still holding at 120.5% above, albeit somewhat shy of the peak 122.5% above its February 2020 Pre-Pandemic level. Given a moribund, underlying U.S. Economy, raising rates further [as had been heavily jawboned and promised by the Fed Chairman, among other FOMC members, until the most-recent March 2023 FOMC] likely will only exacerbate deteriorating economic conditions, without providing any meaningful inflation relief. In terms of quarter-to-quarter change, despite a sharp monthly decline in March 2023, those January and February auto sales pulled relative real 1q2023 activity up at an annualized quarterly pace of 3.10%, following respective consecutive annualized quarter-to-quarter declines of 3.29% (-3.29%) and 2.35% (-2.36%) in 4q2022 and 3q2022. Revised year-to-year growth slowed to 0.88%, from 0.91% and an initial estimate of 0.96%, versus 1.94% in 3q2022. -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Corrected Alternate-GDP estimate, adjusted for the continual understatement of headline GDP Inflation, and the corresponding continual overstatement of growth in the Real GDP, showed a corrected 1q2023 real annualized quarterly contraction of 0.98% (-0.98%), against a 0.50% 4q2022 gain, with an annual contraction of 0.49% (-0.49%) in 1q2023, against an annual drop of 1.16% (-1.16%) in 4q2022. John Williams, founder of ShadowStats, calculates inflation using the same methodology that the government used to have for calculating the consumer price index (CPI). ShadowStats will re-address these numbers at that time. The CPI-U (consumer price index) is the broadest measure of consumer price inflation for goods and services published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).. Gasoline prices having been in an upswing since January 2023, gaining 11.7% since December 2022, as of the just-released April 2023 monthly average [EIA]. Having largely nonfunctional Executive and Congressional branches of the U.S. Government does little to help stabilize the domestic Economy or Inflation. Yet, Fourth-Quarter 2020 New-Home Sales Contracted, as Did Real Retail Sales, Suggestive of Consumers Facing Intensifying Pandemic and Liquidity Issues I also have provided testimony before Congress (details here). The U.S. Dollar Is at Its Lowest Level Against the Swiss Franc Since January 2015, Down by 10.0% (-10.0%) Year-to-Year A Weak Dollar Is Highly Inflationary for the United States and Bullish for Gold Fed Chair Powell Noted That Surging Money Supply No Longer Boosts the Economy Minimizing Reporting of Such, the Fed Just Redefined Money Supply M1; Given Newly Defined M1-Like Liquidity Characteristics for M2 Savings Deposits, Savings Have Been Shifted Retroactively from M2 to into M1, Effective as of May 2020 Noted the by the U of M, Despite the increasingly negative news on business conditions heard by consumers, their short and long-run economic outlook improved modestly balanced by worsening assessments of personal finances due to higher expenses, reflecting the ongoing pain stemming from continued high prices. [Go to http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu for the full details.]. A new analysis will follow with preliminary April 2023 numbers late this coming week. INFORMAL ECONOMY SIZE AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP. The extent of these effects is uncertain. As Tim notes, this is a gobsmacking error. John Williams, founder of Shadow Government Statistics, . Republishing our charts: Permission, Restrictions and Instructions (includes important requirements for successful hot-linking), Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting, This material is provided under the ShadowStats.com. Summary John Williams from Shadowstats joins me to discuss the new economy post-COVID-19 emergence in the US. The Real Housewives of Atlanta The Bachelor Sister Wives 90 Day Fiance Wife Swap The Amazing Race Australia Married at First Sight The Real Housewives of Dallas My 600-lb Life Last Week Tonight with . [Posted May 1st, 1:00 a.m. For the month of February 2023, the real Deficit deepened to -l04.6 billion. Broadly, the aggregate Monetary Base had been in decline since hitting a peak in January 2021, but it has turned higher in the last several months. TRA's research provides businesses with an understanding of the current operating market which is important in making future decisions. Where current inflationary pressures appear to be tied to excessive Monetary stimulus out of the Fed, not due to an overheating economy, still higher interest rates, now, would do little to contain inflation, while at the same time higher interest rates would continue to impair economic activity. CPI Data Series (Subscription required.) Many segments and regions of the U.S. economy, and individual, personal circumstances have suffered, and continue to suffer severe structural damage from the shutdown, areas that likely will take years to recover fully. An Increasing Number of Unemployed People Were Misclassified as Employed; Corrected December Unemployment Would Have Jumped, Instead of Holding at 6.7% -- Headline March 2023 U.3 and U.6 Unemployment of 3.50% and 6.68% notched lower from respective three- and six-month highs of 3.57% and 6.80% in February, but held above January 2023 levels. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. We thank Cass Information Systems for sharing their survey information. Full-Year 2020 Annual GDP Decline of 3.5% (-3.5%) Was the Deepest Since the 1946 Post-World War II Economic Reset ARCHIVES - VIEWING EARLIER COMMENTARIES. ALTERNATE DATA TAB [See the Menu Bar above] provides the latest headline numbers and exclusive ShadowStats Alternate Estimates and related Graphs of CPI Inflation [April 13], GDP [April 27], Unemployment [April 7], Money Supply [April 25] and the ShadowStats Financial-Weighted U.S. Dollar [January 10]. In context of the ever evolving financial, inflation and economic circumstances, ShadowStats should post Commentary No. That also was in context of a deepening shortfall against its Pre-Pandemic Peak by 1.46% (-1.46%) in 1q2023, versus a 1.22% (-1.22%) shortfall in 4q2022. John Williams, Fundamentals Could Not Be Stronger for Gold and Silver, nor Weaker for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Fed or Market Nonsense to the Contrary Near-Term Financial-Market Turmoil Likely Is Far from Over, Given Renewed Deterioration in Economic Conditions, Fourth-Quarter 2020 Annualized Real GDP Growth of 4.0% Was as Expected, Slowing from the Record 33.4% Third-Quarter Pandemic Rebound Yet, with the new Fed Funds Rate at a 15-plus-year high (since July 2007), the earlier FOMC rate hikes already are pummeling the economy, but again, not relieving inflation. Headline 1q2023 GDP annualized Real GDP growth of 1.06% slowed from an unrevised 2.57% in 4q2022, while annualized quarterly inflation picked from 3.92% to 4.01%. Despite Happy Headline Gains in January 2021 Real Retail Sales, Production and Construction, the Underlying Payroll Employment Numbers Tell the Opposite Story December 2020 Cass Freight Index Jumped Year-to-Year by 6.7%, but Its Two-Year Change Was Down 1.8% (-1.8%) from December 2018, Due to FOMC Tightening Contracting Intervening 2019 Activity That said, the aggregate series quarterly sales, have been in annual decline for each of the last seven quarters, up through the current 1q2023, in an otherwise deepening housing recession. Accordingly, the FOMCs near-term financial-market policy conundrum of creating Money Supply to support the financial system, while trying to kill inflation at the same time, has no happy resolution. Please note that the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Data and Graphs have been updated for March 2023 on the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the above links ribbon). Commentary No. It remains ShadowStats contention that the surging headline inflation is due to FOMC-triggered massive growth in the Money Supply and Monetary Liquidity, as reflected in the highly liquid Basic M1 (Currency plus Time Deposits / Checking Accounts), not due to an Overheating Economy. PLEASE NOTE: In 10 days (March 24th), this Retail Sales Series will undergo an annual benchmark revision. Nov 26, 2013 Housing Starts delayed again. While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation measured in terms of year-to-year percent change in the price index. -- A little closer to real-world numbers, initial year-to-year headline March 2023 PPI Construction Inflation eased to 15.6%, from a minimally revised 16.1% (previously 16.2%) in February 2023.
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